Seoul Cables: Wikileaks information on North Korea

My friend, Mr. Lee, has thankfully summarized the information on South/North diplomatic information that was released in Wikileaks, so the rest of us can have an easy read.

Short Short Notes:

North Korea is already screwed unless the US remove sanctions so they attack and build missiles to try to intimidate the US into opening talks. They have no allies. Probably collapse shortly after KJI dies.

Short Notes:

North Korea seems to be using it's nuclear program/attacks as a prod for more economic and humanitarian aid which is usually the case for all acts of aggression from North Korea. Also, it may be a political move to improve the state of North Korea while Kim Jong Il's son is place in power to strengthen his position as leader. They engage in "limited armed conflict" to limit retaliation and DPRK is aware the surprise attacks are no longer viable due to US-South Korea increased surveillance. Therefore, there is a low chance of another imminent attack.

Difficult to predict whether Kim Jong-il’s youngest son Kim Jong-un would be able to succeed his father without sparking instability in the North. Of the five experts, one thought the younger Kim might succeed and one argued his lack of leadership experience made it unlikely he would win the support of the ruling elites.

They agreed that Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law Jang Song-taek would prove a strong rival for the younger Kim and would probably be tempted to challenge him.

Kim Jong-il had used draconian controls and international aid to discourage coups after having foiled three such attempts in the late 90s.

The U.S/Korean sanctions are hitting North Korea so hard that it's on the verge of collapse. There is already massive starvation occurring and their economy is pretty much non-existent. They have survived on aid so far from China and South Korea. South Korea has cut-off all talks and tourism to North Korea, holds a stronger and harsher view on DPRK and are probably not going to improve relations anytime soon (due to presidential change). China wants no part in bailing out North Korea as well and it seems DPRK knows this which is why they probably want direct talks with the US. Previously, DPRK was useful to China as a "buffer state" but now China does not need DPRK.

DPRK are also trying to open direct talks with the US using acts of aggression possibly to release sanctions placed on North Korea since this is the only hope they have in terms of stability. Ironically, at the same time, they are beefing up their military to hold internal stability when succession occurs.

There are many predictions of the collapse of North Korea after the death of KJI which is predicted of ranges 2 to 10 years depending on his pancreatic cancer.

Source links:

A/S CAMPBELL’S MEETING WITH ROK UNIFICATION

Talks about the current and future of DPRK and the possible plans set out by Kim Jong Il and the future unification of Korea. Detailed history included here.

ROK REACTIONS TO DPRK MISSILE LAUNCHES-DAY TWO

Main points are in the beginning. Talks about continuing to ship fertilizer with DPRK to fulfill agreement but has suspended all other aid afterward. Also, certain talks with DPRK were suspended. The rest is about the South Korea's response in politics, media, watchdogs, and tourism.

VFM CHUN YOUNG-WOO ON SINO-NORTH KOREAN RELATIONS

Opinion on the current views of China on DPRK and how China and Japan might react to the collapse of North Korea.

CAMPBELL DISCUSSES DPRK FUTURE WITH EXPERTS

Talks about Kim Jong Il's son, Kim Jong Un. Analysis by some experts.

DPRK MILITARY RHETORIC AND NATIONAL DEFENSE

Talks about the military stategy of DPRK and military statements.

ROK’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD THE NEIGHBORS:

Interaction between DPRK, China, Japan, and Russia.

Pyongyang University of Science and Technology

The unlikely marriage of hard-line communists and Christian capitalists has finally wed after delays of about 10 years and many objections. Pyongyang University of Science and Technology (PUST) started its first classes last October when 16 professors from the United States and Europe arrived to teach the first group of 160 students. With any marriage, there will be those who celebrate and those who disapprove. The last I heard, the PUST teachers will be getting a break from its beloved spouse during Christmas.

Watch this video for a forum about PUST.


For more information: PUST
The NY Times
Wikipedia
Korea Focus

The North Korean Website List

Take a look at the list of fascinating websites North Koreans have created. I doubt the average North Korean has access to the internet, so what is the purpose of promoting their propaganda to the world? Click here.

Compiled by Martyn Williams from North Korea Tech.

Tit for Tat: War Games

South Korea: “We will make sure it pays a dear price without fail.”

North Korea: "Escalated confrontation would lead to a war and he who is fond of playing with fire is bound to perish therein. Gone are the days when verbal warnings are served only."

United States: "The United States stands shoulder to shoulder with our close friend and ally, the Republic of Korea" Let's send a gunboat - in this case, a nuclear aircraft carrier.

China: "Emergency meeting!"

For more information: KBS, The NY Times, CBC

The Aftermath

Interestingly enough, the North Koreans who are currently visiting my parents in China have heard about the attacks on Yeonpyeong Island. Although they are in a land that has far more freedom to information than theirs, they still came to the conclusion that South Korea is to blame for the conflict. As they are currently in China, they probably have not seen North Korea's state operated media reports, but the mind that has been controlled for many years by propaganda automatically assumes without question "the other" as the evil perpetrator.

For more information: Ariel View at BBC
Slideshow at Reuters

Some Opinions about the Attack

Artillery Attacks on Yeonpyeong Island

Yesterday's attacks leaves me wondering what will be next.

North Korea's Family Tree - Compiled by BBC

For more information: BBC

Profile of Kim Jung-un

Who is he? Not much is known about him; most is speculated.

• Youngest son of Kim Jung-il and late third wife Ko Yong-hui
• Born in 1983 or early 1984
• Nicknamed "Morning Star Kim" by his mother
• Father's favourite
  
• Swiss educated
• Can speak, English, German, and French
  
• Attended Kim Il-Sung Military University
• Avid skier and fan of NBA
• Splitting image of his father in face, body shape, and personality
• Shares some of his father's health concerns (diabetes and heart disease) due to lack of exercise
• Inexperienced and untested with no political legitimacy other than his birth
  

What is his current position?

• Vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Worker's Party
  
• Rank of four-star general
• Appointed to the National Defence Commission
  
• Ranks 6th in the North Korean hierarchy
• By order supported by the North Korean officials as the next leader
  
• Has recent poems and songs composed to promote his virtues as a leader
• Has 10 million portraits ready for distribution to hang alongside his father and grandfather

What will he inherit?

• Nuclear weapons
• No economy
• Widespread hunger and famine
• Disgruntled population
  
• Labour camps
• Country still at war

What an inheritance. I think I would take his oldest brother's lead and try to escape to Disney World; a much better fantasy land.

For more information: BBC, CBC, Chosun Ilbo, The NY Times

Rock and Roll

Recent footage from the military parade where Kim Jung-un made an appearance. The North Koreans really know how to rock the goose-step march.

The Next Dear Leader?

Kim Jong-il's youngest son, Kim Jong-un made a rare public appearance October 10, 2010 at a massive military parade alongside his father. Kim Jong-un, who was hardly known even in his own country until recently, is expected to inherit his family's kingdom. Last month Kim Jong-un was made a four-star general and given senior positions in the government and the Korean Workers' Party. What kind of leader will he be? Will he be as dear as his father?

For more information: BBC

Bittersweet Reunion

Imagine being separated from your family for more than half of century? How would you even recognize your mother or father, sister or brother after 50 years? About 20 years ago, my father was fortunate enough to meet his older sister in North Korea. During the war, she stayed behind to care for her ill mother-in-law while her husband and all of my father's family escaped to South Korea. I cannot contemplate her pain and suffering of being left behind.

Yesterday, more than 430 South Korean crossed the border to reunite with their loved ones.
"The current reunion is the 18th since 2000. Nearly 21,000 South Koreans have been reunited with relatives so far, the Red Cross said. Meanwhile, 88,000 South Koreans are on a Red Cross waiting list. But time is running out; about half the South Korean applicants are now over 80."
The NY Times


For more information: CBC

The Heroism of North Koreans

Unfortunately their cause is not a very worthy one.

"On Friday (January 22, 2010), the autocratic state offered posthumous awards to crew members who drowned while reportedly attempting to save portraits of leader Kim Jong Il and his late father, Kim Il Sung, as a cargo ship sank in frigid water off the Chinese coast in November" (LA Times).

Decrepit Vehicles

The ability to keep such decrepit vehicles running demands respect. The streets of North Korea appear to be a museum of collector items of 1950s Russian automobiles. But the reality is: that is their only mode of transportation.

To see more DPRK vehicles: Kernbeisser on Flickr