My friend, Mr. Lee, has thankfully summarized the information on South/North diplomatic information that was released in Wikileaks, so the rest of us can have an easy read.
Short Short Notes:
North Korea is already screwed unless the US remove sanctions so they attack and build missiles to try to intimidate the US into opening talks. They have no allies. Probably collapse shortly after KJI dies.
Short Notes:
North Korea seems to be using it's nuclear program/attacks as a prod for more economic and humanitarian aid which is usually the case for all acts of aggression from North Korea. Also, it may be a political move to improve the state of North Korea while Kim Jong Il's son is place in power to strengthen his position as leader. They engage in "limited armed conflict" to limit retaliation and DPRK is aware the surprise attacks are no longer viable due to US-South Korea increased surveillance. Therefore, there is a low chance of another imminent attack.
Difficult to predict whether Kim Jong-il’s youngest son Kim Jong-un would be able to succeed his father without sparking instability in the North. Of the five experts, one thought the younger Kim might succeed and one argued his lack of leadership experience made it unlikely he would win the support of the ruling elites.
They agreed that Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law Jang Song-taek would prove a strong rival for the younger Kim and would probably be tempted to challenge him.
Kim Jong-il had used draconian controls and international aid to discourage coups after having foiled three such attempts in the late 90s.
The U.S/Korean sanctions are hitting North Korea so hard that it's on the verge of collapse. There is already massive starvation occurring and their economy is pretty much non-existent. They have survived on aid so far from China and South Korea. South Korea has cut-off all talks and tourism to North Korea, holds a stronger and harsher view on DPRK and are probably not going to improve relations anytime soon (due to presidential change). China wants no part in bailing out North Korea as well and it seems DPRK knows this which is why they probably want direct talks with the US. Previously, DPRK was useful to China as a "buffer state" but now China does not need DPRK.
DPRK are also trying to open direct talks with the US using acts of aggression possibly to release sanctions placed on North Korea since this is the only hope they have in terms of stability. Ironically, at the same time, they are beefing up their military to hold internal stability when succession occurs.
There are many predictions of the collapse of North Korea after the death of KJI which is predicted of ranges 2 to 10 years depending on his pancreatic cancer.
Source links:
A/S CAMPBELL’S MEETING WITH ROK UNIFICATION
Talks about the current and future of DPRK and the possible plans set out by Kim Jong Il and the future unification of Korea. Detailed history included here.
ROK REACTIONS TO DPRK MISSILE LAUNCHES-DAY TWO
Main points are in the beginning. Talks about continuing to ship fertilizer with DPRK to fulfill agreement but has suspended all other aid afterward. Also, certain talks with DPRK were suspended. The rest is about the South Korea's response in politics, media, watchdogs, and tourism.
VFM CHUN YOUNG-WOO ON SINO-NORTH KOREAN RELATIONS
Opinion on the current views of China on DPRK and how China and Japan might react to the collapse of North Korea.
CAMPBELL DISCUSSES DPRK FUTURE WITH EXPERTS
Talks about Kim Jong Il's son, Kim Jong Un. Analysis by some experts.
DPRK MILITARY RHETORIC AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
Talks about the military stategy of DPRK and military statements.
ROK’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD THE NEIGHBORS:
